IDF Chief of Military Intelligence Major-General Amos Yadlin on Monday addressed a Tel Aviv University audience, giving his professional assessment on an array of topics, including Iran.
The senior officer explained that when Lehman Brothers went under, Iranians were quite pleased but shortly thereafter, they became aware of the painful reality that the price of oil is dropping and the global economic crisis is knocking at their door as well. He predicts that 2009 will bring a continued drop in the price of oil accompanied by widespread unemployment and uncontrollable inflation for Iranians, who will not be able to sit back and rely on oil revenues to carry them through the difficult period.
He views the current period ?one of waiting� in which the new US administration is working to prepare for the January 20th swearing-in of President-elect Barak Obama, and in Israel, preparations are underway for the February 10th general election for the 18th Knesset, and in the PA, Abu Mazen�s term is winding down in January 2009.
The end of the Bush administration is a welcome reality in Iran, with Arab nations cautiously hoping the incoming administration will provide them with a welcome change. Yadlin pointed out that it was more than coincidental that Syrian President al-Assad was among the first to applaud the election of Obama over the Republican candidate, Senator John McCain.
In the meantime, Iran is working diligently towards nuclear independence, taking advantage of the weak response of the international community, which continues demanding Tehran halt nuclear enrichment efforts.
Yadlin believes that Obama will be perceived as a new and welcome impartial leader, and that accompanied with bleak economic realities in Iran will compel a different approach by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
Ahmadinejad is pragmatic, he adds, and the Iranian leader does not want to be isolated and placed in the same category as N. Korea and Iraq. Yadlin is not concerned over America entering into dialogue with Iran, explaining that if successful, the nuclear program will halt. If talks breakdown however, America will have a better understanding regarding the need for increased and sterner sanctions. Dialogue he explains is not to be interpreted as a conciliatory policy by the White House.
(Yechiel Spira � YWN Israel)�
http://www.theyeshivaworld.com/article.php?p=26099
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