According to a report released by the Washington-based Center for Strategic & International Studies, should Israel decide to launch an attack against Iran, it is more likely it would be done with ballistic missiles, not combat aircraft, a conclusion reached after studying the problems of penetrating the air space of regional nations. The report concludes that a strike with fighter jets is far more risky than launching highly-accurate Jericho Missiles, which Israel is believed to have in its arsenal.
"A military strike by Israel against Iranian Nuclear Facilities is possible and the optimum route would be along the Syrian-Turkish border then over a small portion of Iraq then into Iran, and back the same route. However, the number of aircraft required, refueling along the way and getting to the targets without being detected or intercepted would be complex and high risk and would lack any assurances that the overall mission will have a high success rate".
The Jerichos are capable of carrying a 750kg (1,650lb) warhead, and according to Abdullah Toukan in his 114-page report, 42 missiles could do the trick, possibility eliminating or at least severely damaging major Iranian nuclear facilities located in Natanz, Esfahan and Arak. He reports the Jericho-3 missiles are extremely accurate, capable of impacting within a number of meters from a target.
Toukan does point out that such an assault would not be without difficulties, including an Iran armed with sophisticated Russian S-300 anti-aircraft system, which could intercept Jerichos.
"If the Jericho III is fully developed and its accuracy is quite high then this scenario could look much more feasible than using combat aircraft," he said in the March 14 report, titled "Study on a Possible Israeli Strike on Iran's Nuclear Development Facilities".
As is the case with Israel's nuclear arsenal, officials in Jerusalem do not confirm or deny having Jericho ballistic missiles.
He warns however that such a unilateral move by Israel may result in a counter strike with Iranian Shihab missiles, as well as Tehran taking other actions, which might include hitting US Gulf positions, ordering attacks against Jewish targets elsewhere or cutting off oil exports.
The report quotes an Israeli consultant who states only the United States and Russia has real-time satellite capabilities that would detect the rocket launches in 'real time', minimizing the chance of Iran obtaining the information.
(Yechiel Spira - YWN Israel)
http://www.theyeshivaworld.com/article.php?p=31900
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