On the one hand, polls show that Nir Barkat still remains in the lead in the Jerusalem mayoral race. On the other hand, it is a known fact that polls involving the chareidi voters are generally inaccurate.
Pollsters and analysts have their theories, but they all agree that Barkat�s biggest concern is the lack of interest � the poor voter turnout among the secular community, his major support base. Usually, less than 50% of the eligible secular voters in Yerushalayim will exercise their right to vote.
In the chareidi camp however, that number is generally well over 70%, and Porush�s support extends into the dati leumi and even secular areas, but he too knows every vote will count. His strongest support will be among the chareidim, who generally follow the instructions of Gedolei Yisrael Shlita.
Independent candidate Arkadi Gaydamak is expected to be the first candidate to bring out Arab voters, who for decades have ignored the Jerusalem elections since by voting, they perceive they give legitimacy to Israel regarding its control over the eastern areas of the capital, which the Arabs view as "occupied?. The same holds true in certain chareidi areas, such as Knesset Alef, Bet, Gimmel, Meah Shearim and other neighborhoods, whose residents feel voting is betrayal, a recognition of the Zionist state which is not run by Torah Law.
Two months ago, Barkat led in the polls against Porush by about 23%, but today, the polls show Porush has significantly bridged that gap to 9%.
One of the other concerns is votes earned by Gaydamak and Biron, both not viewed as ?real contenders with a chance of winning, are nonetheless taking votes from another candidate. Most feel that will overwhelming hurt Barkat, not Porush.In an election-related matter, police on Monday night will be out in force Arab areas. A senior Israel Police official stated they have credible intelligence information pointing to plans to interfere with municipal elections in Israeli Arabs areas, including Kalansua, Tirah, Kfar Bara, Kfar Kassam and Jaljulya. Over 2,000 police will be assigned to election duty in the Israeli Arab ?Triangle� area.
(Yechiel Spira � YWN Israel)
http://www.theyeshivaworld.com/article.php?p=25664
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